Agree the growth will be slowing down. With so many new entrants, there's no way an individual manufacturer can expect to see the same explosive growth.

However, don't assume this means netbooks aren't important. They will slowly but surely take over a large percentage of the notebook/computer space. They will both cannibalize existing computer sales and increase the total number of computers sold.

A computer for everybody in the family. A computer in the living room. A computer in the kitchen. Etc.

I've got a Dell Mini 9. Its fine for my needs right now. But inexpensive enough that I will be replacing it, this year I would expect. I'll be waiting for Windows 7. A 10" or 11" screen. < 1" thick. 720p screen resolution. Maybe the next gen Z-series CPU with a slight spec bump in MHz. Bigger/better/faster SSD.

Nah, there are plenty of upcoming features that will get us to upgrade (720p, better resolution, fanless, touchscreen, swivel, lighter, battery life extension, pixel qi style passive-ish ebook friendly screen mode, CPU power...). After that, lowered prices due to lower component cost will open up a mass market of multi-pc customers. If the price and energy consumption is right, I'll buy a swivel netbook for the kitchen to browse for recipes on, and so on for many other rooms in the house. I think the swivel version are going to be key for a continued boom in sales.

Since you seem to be keen on swivel screens, could you elaborate on their appeal for me? I see the utility of being able to fold back the screen and make a tablet, but personally I don't want to write on my screen. Also I see how it could be handy to swivel the screen around 180 degrees and get the keyboard out of the way to make more space on a workbench or kitchen counter, but beyond these things I don't see the appeal. (It would be nice if they could be rotated to vertical portrait format for manuscript work, but I don't think that's possible with any tablet is it?)

P.S. Or if anyone else wants to clue me in, that would be nice. (Sorry about getting off topic)

Well, as long as the price is right then swivel enabled Netbooks could be used as easy access touchscreen computers in almost any room: fasten one to the fridge door and use it for looking up recipes, making a grocery list, listen to music and so on.

Apart from that, swivel in combination with screen rotation software like freeware Irotate http://www.entechtaiwan.com/util/irotate.shtm allows for ebook reading on the Netbook when swivelled to tablet mode. In a few years time, any book, paper or other print product will be available in e-format if it isn't already. Screens that are more easy on the eyes are coming soon too -- see http://www.liliputing.com/2009/04/pixel-qi-3qi-...

cheers

Thanks for the ideas. Now that you mention it, the ebook idea does make sense with the netbook format, and this sort of thing might cause the smaller 7 inch and 9 inch models to get popular again. For me, touch screens make more sense with smaller screen size.

There are innumerable niches in the potential netbook market. The one that I inhabit is irritated by the tendency to beef up mini-laptops. Light weight has been the main attraction for me. No netbook can be cheaper than my old 12-inch Mac which for me has zero cost. None can have a larger display. I want something dramatically more portable than what I already have.

Netbooks are to alike, why do all choose i386 and not ARM for better battery life. Why don't they go lower in weight, it should be possible to make one at 0.5 kg.

I don't know what percent of the market is made up of us aficionados, but I think a large percentage of us will buy second and third netbooks in the near future as specs improve and the feature assortment varies a bit.

This should provide at least a little insurance against market saturation.

John Morris has it exactly right. Moore's law and free Linux / Android ensures that netbooks will continue their disruptive technology at lower price points, e.g. below US $100. If Intel will not supply the part then some ARM fab will. Any ARM at 500 MHz with 250 MB DRAM is a more powerful computer than the average desktop 10 years ago. Android covers the software gap that otherwise appears with a move away from x86.

Waiting for 720p matte screen Mac OS X compatible NetBook

It isn't suprising sales are slowing, as netbook makers have worked to fill in the gaps in the product lines and essentially merge with notebooks the excitement is going away. The current models are as close to notebooks as you can get away with and still ship XP at the special netbook pricing. And as the pricing creeps ever upward that artificial limit isn't even going to hold.

But the ARMs are coming and they should re-excite the market and open up those new untapped markets the original netbooks started to go into before deciding to instead go up the price/performance curve in search of higher margins.

Things probably aren't going to truly get interesting until the computer makers are pushed out of the game by the consumer electronics makers. Even Dell isn't willing to go where Coby and such will eventually go in terms of mass merchandising and lowball prices. We will see a $100 machine sold at retail (not refurb or a closeout, not even a black friday doorbuster, a real low everyday price) in 12-24 months and within five years a $100 netbook will be powerful enough that people who aren't broke will consider using one as a disposable spare.

I really don't think most folks realize that the netbook is just the first inkling in a much larger change, computers EVERYWHERE. I'll predict here that the next shoe to drop will be when it becomes a standard feature for any LCD tv, starting as a value add on higher end models and quickly becoming normal, to have WiFi/Ethernet and a web browser and eventually a netbook like simplified desktop experience a keypress away. Bluetooth will be supported for better input devices.

The industry needs to get smart about this. Netbooks could be the first computer for people that otherwise would not buy a computer for another decade. I mean people on the 'wrong side' of the digital divide who we could get onto a computer now. Netbooks can also become the second computer for some families; the kids or parents computer to use when they 'other' is occupied. Moreover, netbooks coudl become the vacation computer, the kid's school computer, or any other use that will become normal in the next decade.

The industry needs to think about expanding the computer market into the realm of the vcr, dvd player, or play-station. The sub-$500 is not going to go away. And I have worse news for the industry, the sub-$300 market will be on the rise from the cellphone end pushing into bigger devices and the possibility of the 7" size swinging back with ARM devices.

The industry needs to think huge, not tiny. The industry needs to ask itself if it ready for ubiquitous ownership. They say, "There is no money in this..." but what if Acer, Asus, HP, Lenovo, Samsung, Dell, and _________ each sold 8 million netbooks each year? Is that real money now? Is it real money if Acer and Asus sell 16 million units each because they push ubiquitous ownership ? That's the choice; push 90% household ownership together or watch two or three do it alone sweeping up frightening amounts of the market.

Well, actually, I'm on my third one in 2 years. I started the the infamous EEE, and then moved to the Acer Aspire one, and then moved to the Dell Mini 9. I only sold the EEE and still use both of the others.

I may just be the exception to the rule, but until a "prefect" machine comes out I'll probably keep taking them out for test drives.

i'm on no.4

1) asus eee 701 4g. still have it. trying to find somebody who will appreciate it and give it a good home.
2) asus eee 904. just too big for my carrying case. an ok machine. gave it to my brother who uses it on the road for sending emails to customers.
3) acer aspire one. near perfect machine. bar the keyboard. no blue tooth
4) olpc. wanted one the day i first heard of them and a very good friend arranged for one to be trekked to ireland as amazon wouldn't ship. it's slow and has limited software but of all them i think i prefer it the most as it is the one that makes other nerds stop and go wow! battery life is insane. the build quality is excellent. i don't have it in a laptop bag, just a plastic bag to keep it dry in my back pack. probably had more fun with vim and python on the olpc than any other netbook. yes i'm sad :-)

there is no perfect machine. i'll always want something better. if the olpc 1.5 has a better battery life i might get one. if a good arm net book appears with a tablet mode with touchscreen. i could very easily be tempted.

but i suspect i will hang on to the olpc as a tribute to the machine that created this whole market.

i'd say ... the markets with people that have some spare money in their pockets are saturating ... and other markets do not even have this money for ANY device .... may be the cheap china stuff will sell there - if there exists local distribution channels and retailers, if

I'm waiting for Ion Platform :-)

@bri - I'm with you. I want a netbook that can do light gaming, so ION is the #1 priority for me. Everything else should fall into place once that happens.

Matter of fact, if the Dell Mini 10 or the HP Mini 1000 ships with the ION chipset, I'll buy it, but not until then.

Is oversaturated with the same intel atom processor.. easy show us netbooks with better cpus and gpus you'll see

Currently they're based on cheap, identikit hardware so its probably not so surprising every man and hiss dog is getting in on the action.

Happily with Intel and NVidia bringing out new chipsets and decent ARM/VIA processors on the horizon we should begin to see some diversification soon.

And not before time - useful though my 901 is there is so much more potential in the low power, low cost market.

Netbooks could have developed like cell phones -- sold based on feature coolness AND price, rather than one or the other.

That almost all netbooks are the same stems from a profit-driven laziness, not an inability on the part of engineers to come up with cool things.

Yes.

I'm waiting for an Ion powered desktop myself but for the most part, I mean they're all the same computers with the same specs'. To be truthful the only real difference your getting in these pcs at the moment is a different keyboard. I love my eee1000 but if I have a 10 inch wind i probably wouldn't notice much of a deference.